Finance
When does your startup actually run out of money?
A single-number runway hides the truth: burn and growth are uncertain, so your cash-out date is a range. This template runs thousands of 24-month scenarios and shows the real spread — and your odds of surviving the year.
Get this in Google Sheets →The model
A 24-month cash projection. Revenue grows at an uncertain monthly rate; burn is uncertain too. Runway = the number of months your cash stays positive.
| Starting cash | $500,000 |
| Month-1 revenue | $20,000 |
| Monthly revenue growth | 3% – 12% – 20% (uncertain) |
| Monthly burn | $70K – $90K – $120K (uncertain) |
| Runway (months) | → simulated |
What Sortia tells you
The naïve runway ($500K ÷ $70K net burn) says ~7 months. The simulation tells a fuller story:
P5 (unlucky)5 months
Median8 months
P95 (lucky)24 months
Survive 24 mo19%
P5 · 5 momedian · 8 moP95 · 24 mo
Half of scenarios run out by month 8, and only about 1 in 5 survive the full 24 months without a change. A single deterministic number would have hidden both the downside (as short as 5 months) and the low odds of making it — exactly the risk you want to see before you commit a plan.
Try it in your own sheet
- Open Sortia in Google Sheets and choose Start from a template.
- Pick Startup Runway & Cash-Out Date — the model loads with the inputs filled in.
- Change the assumptions to fit your situation and press Run.