You already have the model. Let’s find its odds.
Estimates in, odds out. Put a range on the inputs you are guessing at and Sortia comes back with the odds of hitting your goal, what moves them and what to do next, right inside Google Sheets™. More than fifty tools, every result in plain language.
A seeded run of the profit model printed below: one lone point estimate holds, ten thousand trials fill in beside it, and they settle into an outcome distribution with the fitted curve traced over the top.
10,000 trials, seed 42. P50 $155,733. P10 to P90 $92,723 to $229,109.
profit = (price − cost) × demand · three uncertain inputs · one output cell, D10
One number is not a forecast.
A forecast should come with its odds.
The answer should be readable by whoever opens the file.
A tool should not cost you your client’s data.
Nothing should be capped by your model’s size.
Every number should be reproducible by seed.
Hold us to it. The rest of this page is the evidence.
Start from your question.
Nobody searches for a method. They search for the thing they have to decide by Thursday.
One click writes a working model into your sheet, with real numbers already in it. 194 of the 379 run start to finish on free tools.
Browse all 379 templatesYour odds, what moves them, what to tighten first.
Every answer explains itself. Free gives you the tools. Pro reads the answer with you.
Treat 155,733 as a coin flip, not a promise.
What this means
Half of the runs put Profit (D10) at or below 155,733, so treat 155,733 as a coin flip, not a promise. Eight runs in ten land between 92,723 and 229,109; plan against whichever end of that range would hurt, not the middle. Price (B3) moves the result most (rank correlation +0.68: higher price, higher profit). Tightening that estimate narrows the range faster than anything else.
Engine reading. Pro adds the model’s read: the same figures in plain words, with the driver and tail weighed against each other.
{"kind":"simulation","trials":10000,"outputs":[{"ref":"D10","p10r":0.595,"p90r":1.471,"meanr":1.019}],"drivers":[{"ref":"B3","rho":0.68},{"ref":"B4","rho":-0.52},{"ref":"B5","rho":0.44}]}
Ratios, shares, counts and cell references only. No cell values, no labels, no names, no formulas.
Read by the model. Only the shape of the result was sent, never your cells.
Every simulation, optimization, decision tree, schedule and critical chain result carries a reading, and so do most of the 38 data-analysis tools. Type the figure you are planning against into a Risk run and the reading leads with the odds of clearing it, counted from the trials. On the free tier the engine writes it, from its own figures, and nothing is sent to a model. AI readings are a Pro feature.
That is the whole payload, on every Pro reading, one click from the card. The words come back with placeholders and your figures are put in here, so a reply that quotes a number the model was never given is thrown away and the engine reading stands. “Written readings of results” turns off for you in one click, and an administrator can turn it off for a whole organization.
What free covers, and what Pro covers.
Every tool in the Data Analysis, What-If and Optimization panels is free, with no run counter and no size cap that Pro would lift. Five engines are Pro: Monte Carlo risk simulation, decision tools, project tools, Critical Chain, and optimization under uncertainty. Every free install gets five full-quality runs to spend on those, one allowance shared across all five rather than five for each, and a run only counts once it has produced a report. On the sixth, the run does not start: Sortia names the engine, says the five are used, and offers Pro at $199 a year or a $9 Day Pass for seven days. Everything else keeps working. So Monte Carlo is a Pro engine, and you can run it five times for nothing before you decide.
Report written to “Risk Analysis Report”.
| A | B | C | D | E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Risk Simulation: D10 | ||||
| 2 | Trials | 10000 | |||
| 3 | Sampling | Latin Hypercube | |||
| 4 | Seed | 42 | |||
| 5 | Engine time | 0.03 s | |||
| 6 | Inputs | 3 | |||
| 7 | There’s a 90% chance D10 lands between 76,097 and 252,053. | ||||
| 8 | |||||
| 9 | Simulation Statistics: D10 | ||||
| 10 | Trials (numeric) | 10000 | |||
| 11 | Mean | 158,651.625959 | |||
| 12 | Median | 155,733.146587 | |||
| 13 | Std Deviation | 53,215.229828 | |||
Distribution: D10
The report Sortia writes back into the same file: the run, the plain-language row, the statistics and the chart, on their own tab.
Every field explains itself in plain language, and every tool opens with a worked example inside its guide. Optimization is free on all three engines, up to 2,000 decision cells on Simplex LP, 100 on Evolutionary and 60 on Nonlinear, and the panel tells you the number before you run. Where an engine has a ceiling it is the same ceiling on both plans: we charge for the depth of an engine, never for the size of your model.
Six panels, one sidebar.
- Data Analysis38 tools: statistics, tests, forecasting, machine learning, matching.
- OptimizationMaximize or minimize with constraints: linear, nonlinear, evolutionary.
- Risk AnalysisEstimates in, odds out, with tornado charts and a decision optimizer.
- What-If AnalysisScenarios, Goal Seek, Data Tables.
- DecisionsTrees, weighted scoring, tradeoffs, 2×2 games.
- Project PlanningCritical path, schedule risk, resource load, earned value.
The data toolbox, 38 tools.
Statistics, forecasting and machine learning, and every result is reproducible: same data, same seed, same answer, on any machine. Each one writes a full report back into your file, charts included, on its own tab.
- Describe
- Descriptive StatisticsHistogramRank & PercentileOutlier DetectionDistribution Fitting
- Compare
- ANOVA: Single FactorANOVA: Two-Factor With ReplicationANOVA: Two-Factor Without Replicationt-Test: Pairedt-Test: Equal Variancest-Test: Unequal Variancesz-Test: Two SampleF-Test: Two-SampleChi-Square: IndependenceChi-Square: Goodness of FitMann-Whitney UWilcoxon Signed-RankKruskal-Wallis
- Relate
- CorrelationCovarianceRegression
- Match
- Fuzzy Lookup
- Forecast
- Moving AverageExponential SmoothingHolt-WintersAutocorrelation (ACF)ETS & ARIMA Forecast
- Machine learning
- Neural NetworkLogistic RegressionClassification TreeK-Means ClusteringAssociation Rules
- A/B testing
- Two-Proportion z-TestA/B Test Sample SizeSample Size (General)
- Generate
- Random Number GenerationSampling
- Transform
- Fourier Analysis
New to one of these? Read the plain-English guides to Monte Carlo simulation, decision trees, schedule risk analysis, critical chain planning and optimization under uncertainty.
Or start from the method: statistics in Google Sheets, machine learning, forecasting, optimization and what-if analysis.
Two permissions, and the two Google adds.
Sortia asks for two: the spreadsheet you opened it in, and permission to draw a sidebar. It has no Drive access at all, and your spreadsheet data never leaves your sheet.
Google adds two more to every Workspace Marketplace install, your primary Google account email address and your basic profile information, so the consent screen and the listing’s Permissions tab show four. Sortia does not use them. Its own code asks Google who you are and gets nothing back, which is why activating a site key has to ask you to type your address instead of reading it.
Under the hood, the odds come from a seeded Monte Carlo engine that runs in your browser, and so does the optimizer. The data tools run in Apps Script, attached to your file. Either way, none of your numbers are computed on a Sortia server.
Seed 42 reproduces the run at the top of this page to the last digit, on any machine. More than 6,000 automated tests run on every commit, checking the engines against published textbook values, published critical values and independent implementations that derive the answer a different way. The privacy policy lists the reading payload field by field.
// sortia · asked for by the add-on (app/appsscript.json) https://www.googleapis.com/auth/spreadsheets.currentonly read & write this spreadsheet, and only this one https://www.googleapis.com/auth/script.container.ui draw the sidebar you saw above // added by google to every marketplace install See your primary Google Account email address not read by sortia See your personal info not read by sortia drive access ··········· none cell values, formulas ·· never sent where it computes ······ your browser, your file usage events ··········· anonymous, see privacy
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5 Pro engines · 38 statistics, forecasting and machine-learning tools · 379 ready-made models · 2 permissions Sortia asks for · more than 6,000 automated tests
Estimates in, odds out.