SaaS
What will your ARR be in 12 months — and what is the realistic range?
A single forecast line is a guess dressed up as a fact. New bookings, churn, and expansion all vary month to month. This template turns your forecast into a confidence cone and your odds of clearing target.
Get this in Google Sheets →The model
A monthly ARR bridge: new bookings add, churn subtracts, expansion lifts the base — compounded across 12 months. All three rates are uncertain.
| Starting ARR | $1,000,000 |
| New ARR / month | $40K – $80K – $140K (uncertain) |
| Monthly churn | 1% – 2% – 4% (uncertain) |
| Monthly expansion | 0% – 1% – 3% (uncertain) |
| ARR at month 12 | → simulated |
What Sortia tells you
Month-12 ARR across thousands of scenarios (starting from $1.0M):
P5$1.5M
Median$1.9M
P95$2.3M
Mean$1.9M
P5 · $1.5Mmedian · $1.9MP95 · $2.3M
Even a "healthy" plan lands anywhere from $1.5M to $2.3M. If your board target is $2.2M, this shows you are in the top ~10% of outcomes — a stretch, not a base case. That is a very different conversation than a single confident line.
Try it in your own sheet
- Open Sortia in Google Sheets and choose Start from a template.
- Pick SaaS ARR Forecast with Uncertainty — the model loads with the inputs filled in.
- Change the assumptions to fit your situation and press Run.